Ensemble-Based Storm Surge Forecasting Models

CaMEL and ADCIRC Storm Surge Models— A Comparative Study

The Computation and Modeling Engineering Laboratory (CaMEL), an implicit solver-based storm surge model, has been extended for use on high performance computing platforms. An MPI (Message Passing Interface) based parallel version of CaMEL has been developed from the previously existing serial version. CaMEL uses hybrid finite element and finite volume techniques to solve shallow water conservat...

Storm surge modelling for Bunbury

Storm surge scenarios for Hamburg

Abstract A scenario for future storm surge heights for the tide gauge of Hamburg St. Pauli is constructed on the basis of results from a regional model for Cuxhaven. Under the A2 emission scenario, an increase of the mean annual maximum water level of about 0.1724 m appears possible and plausible for the time horizon of 2030. In Cuxhaven, an increase of 0.14 may be expected in this scenario. In...

Monte Carlo Based Ensemble Forecasting

Ensemble forecasting involves the use of several integrations of a numerical model. Even if this model is assumed to be known, ensembles are needed due to uncertainty in initial conditions. The ideas discussed in this paper incorporate aspects of both analytic model approximations and Monte Carlo arguments to gain some eeciency in the generation and use of ensembles. EEciency is gained through ...

A CYCLONE INDUCED STORM SURGE FORECASTING MODEL FOR THE COAST OF BANGLADESH WITH APPLICATION TO THE CYCLONE `SIDR'

The coast of Bangladesh has a specialty in terms of high bending and many off- shore islands. Incorporation of the coastline and island boundaries properly in the numerical scheme is essential for accurate estimation of water levels due to surge. For that purpose a numerical scheme consisting of very fine mesh is required along the coastal belt, whereas this is unnecessary away from the coast. In...